In my never ending quest to help others overcome the possibility that a client will ask them a question THEY CAN NOT ANSWER, a good post about the difference between Buzz and Word-of-Mouth:
http://www.churchofcustomer.com/2009/02/word-of-mouth-vs-buzz.html
You'll thank me later. ; )
So I'm here at the ANA conference in Florida. I was very curious before I arrived what the atmosphere would be like. Would everyone be all doom and gloom because of the outlook for next year? Nervous? Optimistic?
Well, I can tell you that my feelings are that the atmosphere is a bit surreal. Almost all of the speakers have given a nod to the "challenges" of next year, but have primarily stayed on a script of staying the course and continuing to do the things that have worked for them in the past.
And clients that I am speaking with seem almost in denial. Lots of "everything will be fine". Well, it's fairly obvious it's not going to be fine, but as I've said, I think there is great opportunity for brands that are willing to keep moving forward.
I think a lot of the denial is actually paralysis. Think about what the world has been like the last ten days. Everyday brings new news and fear. No one knows where this all is going to wind up. they know it's bad, but how bad?
Therefore I think marketers are on a 24 hour cycle at this point. What's going to happen tomorrow? What are things going to be like in a week? A month? All this adds up to indecision.
I'm going to be interested in seeing where we are beginning of December when CMO's have to submit their plans for 2009.
The smart players will stay the course. But will likely keep the following in mind:
ROI will be more important than ever. Every dollar will need to be accounted for. Everyone talks ROI, but the laser focus on it really starts now.
Digital will be king. It's effective, efficient, and highly targeted. I include Mobile in this category. As I've said before, it has recently felt like we have lost some momentum in the digital space: 09' is when it really hits.
Finally, efficiency will be king. In both spending and in agency relationships. We'll see lots of consolidations: the era of multiple agencies, especially for global marketers, is going to see change.
Mike Duda is a partner at Deutsch Inc., the outstanding advertising agency that has offices in New York and LA. He's also one of the very best new business development pro's in the agency business.
I've always marveled at Mike's ability to come at an opportunity in a different way than other biz dev guys. And he was one of the early adopters of the strategy in the agency business in connecting to VC's in order to get a glimpse at what the real issues were going to be for marketers in the future.
Mike has written a great article about how the financial crises has affected the agency business. What he writes was true a while back, but is even more important as we all try to grow our agencies in this challenging period.
http://www.pehub.com/19717/a-financial-market-view-from-the-advertising-world/
I like his last point best: talent and great people are still the key to winning new accounts and doing great work.
Team over people. The last, yet likely most important
item. I don’t care if it’s in relation to a Fortune 50 or a start-up
with 50 cents in revenue: Believing in people matters most. But not
just the individual talent. Chemistry amongst the overall executive
team is more coveted. Talent without unity often leads to a lot of
smart, yet differing ideals that rot the upside of success.
(Note from Mitch: I'm on vacation so I've invited a few guest bloggers to write their opinions about What's Next? Mike Duda is Partner, Chief Corporate Strategy Officer at Deutsch Inc.)
What's Next: Nauseating Scaredome...or Change?
With the financial markets as stable as one of Dan Snyder's rollercoasters (http://www.myfoxdc.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=4566347=1=EN-US=VSTY=3.2.1 <http://www.myfoxdc.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=4566347&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=VSTY&pageId=3.2.1> ), gloom-and-doom conversations on Agency growth, Advertiser budgets and marketing overall are rampant. True, we must contend with almost certain fiscal haircuts in our sector. It makes sense, though with the endless sky-is-falling talk that is permeating, its as if none of us has any control over our inevitably negative industry.
Enough.
By no means are things currently wonderful. It ain't smelling like roses and Virginia, there is no Santa Claus. 2009 is a roll-up-the-sleeves year and each of us will have to fight his/her tails off to achieve even minimal gains. Darwinism will be in full affect, leaving some businesses and talent to take tough, tough hits while others use this period as a chance to gain long-term advantages. With that in mind, here are 10 predictions for what's next come 2009.
10) Obama elected. Emotional hope for "change" stirs uplifting consumer confidence spike despite significant business layoffs that will hit in January.
9) Sarah Palin will become a verb. When an Agency is leading a new business pitch but then blows it in the final third of the pitch process, executives will internally meet to discuss how they "Palined" the opportunity and attempt to learn from their mistakes.
8) Many "What's Next?" blog readers and agency heads will seek counsel from the Draper-inspire era that was 1961 with increased :"Mad Men" ratings. Heck, ad growth for the decade was pretty phenomenal...but I'll stick with the non-skinny ties, thank you. (http://www.vineyardvines.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/category.endecaLanding/categoryID/c8a490de-d7df-4764-9f7e-e058216318b0/N/181)
7) The industry will continue its rubbernecking of Enfatico (link: http://www.enfatico.com/).
6) A non Ad Agency wins Advertising Age's "Agency of the Year" award.
5) ***Number Five eliminated due to budget cuts caused by Bailout crisis. Please check back periodically. Thank you***
4) Twitter will transcend social media status, leading the charge for the emerging "Now Web" era that spurs businesses to speed up their operations.
3) ROI will be used exactly the same way as it was during the 2001-03 advertising retrenchment, with the same level of lame, thinly veiled application.
2) Consumers will be cacooning a la post-9/11, but online advertising and commerce will do better than projected.
1) The naysayers in our industry will reap what they sow...as will those committed to make things happen.
I have never been a big proponent of the unbundling of media. I think it is one of the major mistakes made by the holding companies and it had hurt our product by not allowing for truly integrated ideation.
Linda Sawyer, the CEO of Deutsch, makes a nice argument about why this has been bad for the business, and why firms like hers (a terrific shop) benefit from having media in-house.
http://adage.com/cmostrategy/article?article_id=128107
Now, is this piece a little self service? Of course. Why do you think CEO's and CMO's write these pieces? But her argument is still very sound.
Now, does that mean that all creative/media relationships where media is not embedded are failures? No. My agency shares many of our clients with MediaEdge, WPP's largest media shop. And almost all of these shared relationships are highly successful. But it is much harder to make this scenario successful then if our MediaEdge partners were in the same building (which they once were about a decade ago).
All of the larger agencies that don't have media in-house are looking at this issue. I think the first step will be to move Communication Planning back into the creative shop. This would be a good first step in allowing for more successful collaboration in the early days on concepting a strategy and ideas for a clients brand.
Lot's of chatter in the blogshere about the BBDO Cannes Gold Lion winning campaign "Voyeur"and the argument that Big Spaceship, a Brooklyn based agency that positions itself as a new media shop, did not get enough of the credit for the campaign.
http://www.adpulp.com/archives/2008/06/big_spaceship_w.php
http://www.mediabistro.com/agencyspy/news/big_spaceship_screwed_at_cannes_88019.asp
Not being privy to how that relationship worked, I can't really comment on who is right or wrong. It's kick ass work either way so congrats to both.
http://www.canneslions.com/winners/outdoor/
The more interesting issue behind this is the issue of agencies being incubators for great ideas, not just ads.
Everyone knows that a lot of the great work that has come out of Crispin and Goodby the past few years has been strongly supported by The Barbarian Group, and amazing digital shop in Boston and NY. My own agency uses firms outside of our group on occasion when they bring an area of expertise that we either don't have or need a bit more muscle behind.
This is typically in new media areas, as a lot of the talent in the digital space wants to work for smaller specialty firms rather than some of the larger shops.
Is that bad for big agencies? Only if you let it be.
My attitude is that agencies need to be more "open source". We have become a specialty industry. Analytics. Digital (in dozens of different ways). CRM. Media. While we have brilliant people working within our agency, we're all about developing great ideas, whether they come from our shop, one of our sister agencies, or one of our outside partners. It has to be all about creating great ideas.
So does BBDO or Big Spaceship deserve more credit? Don't know. But i do know that these types of partnerships are going to be happening more frequently, and you need to get your organization and culture in alignment for how to make these partnerships as effective as possible.
Interesting post by Idris Mootee about where the real threat to the holding companies comes from.
It's interesting to realize that Google could easily buy both WPP and Omnicom, and that the required funds would barely deplete their cash arsenal. And Google is making acquisition after acquisition (DoubleClick, etc.) which puts them squarely in competition with the agency holding companies, and a vendor (WPP now buys $160M worth of online inventory from Google).
So is this something agencies should worry about?
In the short term I don't think so. Clients still want great ideas and the most talented creative people still work in agencies. But what does the short-term mean?
I think we still have a five year window before this becomes a major issue. Idris agrees:
"The competitive ground for the agency groups in the next 3 years will
be ‘Digital and China’. Period. Those are the two growth pillars. The
biggest problem in the industry is in the traditional media and old
school ad agencies, there’s a serious talent and capability gap that no
way can be filled, no matter how hard they try."
The talent issue is a big one and I've blogged about it before. We must continue to attract the best and brightest to our business, and that means building teams within agencies that allow for the free flow of ideas that developed in a collaborative, open source culture. And technology must have a seat at the table from the beginning.
Also...
It again highlights how closely we in the agency business need to be paying attention to the ever shifting landscape. First it was the digital agencies imposing on our turf. Then it was the production companies. Now it is technology companies (include Yahoo in this group) as well.
So keep track of Google's moves over the next few years. But instead of fighting it, learn how to embrace the new platforms they have introduced (think Google Maps and how some agencies have used it as a marketing tool). Your clients will be paying close attention to this so you should as well.
Even more reason to keep up with What's Next.
The reports are pouring in from the AAAA's conference last week. Surprise, surprise, everyone is talking about how agencies need to get up to speed on digital or face irrelevance.
Duh.
Now, I have a lot of respect for many if the speakers at last weeks conference. Many are legends, like Lee Clow. But I find it a bit embarrassing when the content of many of the speeches simply seem to be designed to highlight an issue that most of us know is THE key issue facing the agency business.
Digitize or die. It's truly simple. Everything about the agency business is chaging (and for the better) and technology is at the tip of the spear.
I don't want to hear the same calls for change that have been written about and spoken about for two or three years now. I want to hear about real, tangible actions to help agencies get ahead of the curve.
How is your agency integrating technologists into your creative process? How are you re-structuring production deparments so that clients see that analog and digital work is managed in a seemless fashion.
More forward thinking is needed. A better public face for the industry needs to be established or all of us, and the AAAA's, are in trouble.
Article today about the IAA Conference in D.C., where apparently some of the big wigs in the agency business said that this digital stuff is REALLY important.
http://adage.com/article?article_id=126243
Now to be fair, I wasn't at the conference so I didn't hear this first hand. But quotes like:
"It's impossible for me to find an area of our business technology hasn't touched, and the rapid rate at which changes continue to take place is absolutely breathtaking." Tom Bernardin, Burnett.
"DDB West's Ms. Ross said consumers are the center of the new digital universe and it requires a major change in marketing thinking." writing about Tribal DDB West President Elizabeth Ross.
I'm sorry. I'm sure these are really smart folks because, well, they got invited to speak at this conference. But if this was the content of the presentations, I'd be asking for my money back.
Digital is changing everything. Check. Where might I have heard that before? Oh yea, I heard it in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.
I read another article last week about how video is the platform agencies need to pay the most attention to when marketing on the web.
I'm going to shoot myself.
Where is the innovation? Where is the forward thinking? Don't tell me that digital is important. I get that. I want to know how agencies are moving forward to make digital idea generation part of their everyday existence. How the hunt for talent revolves around finding people who get What's Next.
I can tell you that at my shop we are killing ourselves to stay ahead of the curve. It's not enough to say digital is changing the game. It's time for agencies to step forward and lead the innovation that needs to take place in the marketing world. Too often we let others develop the platforms first, and then we just jump on board the bandwagon (see Second Life or MySpace or Google Maps, etc).
How many agencies have as a part of their operating budget monies put aside for R&D? We do, and I'll tell you people get really excited about it. We want to be innovators, not just following the lead of others.
So shame on the IAA speakers. You should be leading, not just confirming the obvious.
